Track your picks against our model.

3 for, 0 against

• Form and role: for
• Matchup: for
• Schedule: for, New Mexico State Aggies rested 13 days, Sam Houston Bearkats 6 days

Why

• New Mexico State runs for 142.8 yards per game, and Sam Houston allows 200.3 rushing yards per game.
• New Mexico State comes in with an extra week of rest over Sam Houston.
• Sam Houston has struggled lately, with fewer recent wins than New Mexico State.

What could go wrong

• Sam Houston allows only 137.8 passing yards per game, and New Mexico State allows 25.7 points per game, so a close game could land inside the number.

3 for, 0 against

• Price: for, model 52.2% vs 49.9% fair at 3 books
• Line move: for, total moved from 235.5 to 234.5 since Oct 14
• Availability: for

Why

• Golden State lists Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody out in our injury data, with Stephen Curry day-to-day.
• The Lakers list Collin Sexton day-to-day as well.
• The total has moved from 235.5 to 234.5 this week.
• Our model has the under at 52.2%.

What could go wrong

• If Curry plays a full load, Golden State's shot volume could carry the total past the number.
• Thin rotations can also mean looser defense and more easy baskets for both teams.

1 for, 1 against

• Line move: against, price moved 7.1 points toward the other side since Oct 14
• Availability: for

Why

• The Clippers are without Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram and Max Strus, three of their main scorers, in our injury data.
• Sacramento is missing Ben Simmons and Maxime Raynaud, but Malik Monk is only listed as day to day.
• Both teams are 2-3 over their last 5 games, so recent form does not separate them.
• Our model has Sacramento at 37.6%, a little above the price, and the total has dropped since last week.

What could go wrong

• The Clippers are still at home and the market makes them a clear favourite even with the injuries.
• If Monk sits as well, Sacramento loses its best bench scorer and the gap closes.

2 for, 1 against

• Price: for, model 54.7% vs 48.9% fair at 1 book
• Form and role: against
• Matchup: for

Why

• Antonia Ruzic is ranked 91st and Kayla Day 119th in the October 19 rankings in our data.
• Our model gives Ruzic 54.7% to win this match.

What could go wrong

• Day has the better recent record, and the price comes from only one book, so the market may know more.

2 for, 0 against

• Price: for, model 42.5% vs 34.7% fair at 1 book
• Matchup: for

Why

• Magda Linette is ranked 77 and Katerina Siniakova 86 in the latest rankings in our data.
• Their head to head is level at 3 wins each.
• Both players are 1-2 over their last 3 matches, so form gives Siniakova no edge.
• Our model has Linette at 42.5%, well above the price for a player ranked higher.

What could go wrong

• The market makes Siniakova a clear favourite, which suggests it rates her current level well above her ranking.
• A short sample of 3 recent matches says little about either player.